Cereal price September 2023 and outlook (see chart below)
- Global:US$1.39/ID, -0.7% down
- Barley:US$1.33/ID, unchanged
- Maize:US$1.3/ID, -0.8% down
- Oats:US$1.47/ID, 0.7% up
- Rice:US$1.5/ID, unchanged
- Sorghum:US$1.81/ID, unchanged
- Wheat:US$1.31/ID, unchanged
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Cereal price index
This post is a summary of the Cereal price index developments since 2005 as per the IMF. The developments are expressed as an index and not in absolute terms. Therefore the Cereal price index means that the values provided are relative to Jan 1 2019 which is defined as 1.00.
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Where does the data come from?
- The source of the data are exclusively public non-confidential sources
- This the index trend of the price of the product group in general and not a single specification in particular
- The data is a combination of contract and spot pricing
- Our algorithms are set up to eliminate significant product mix impact on the reported price
- We combine public publications, import/export records, trading prices, company announcements, magazine articles, tweets, and other sources of ad-hoc public information.
- The chart shows the our best approximation of the market trend based on our algorithm interpretation of the signals
- For most indexes we have multiple sources and we focus on using statistically-correlated sources
- We will update the data trend as more information becomes available, and this means that recent trends will always be adjusted as we get more data available
- We will constantly revise our understanding of market trends, and indicated market trends may change
- The data is presented in US$. The UOM of measure is shown in the Index list table
- We do our best to create an accurate representation of the trend
Where does the data NOT come from?
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- We do not extrapolate trends, even for the forecast. We look for other market signals and leading indicators
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- Quality level A: Data is from a reliable and confirmed source
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- Quality level C: Data is from multiple credible sources and there are some statistical inconsistencies between them
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- Quality level E: Data is either:
- From a single source, which we consider reliable, but we cannot verify the data.
- From 2 or more sources which have some periods of contradicting trends.
- Quality level F: Data is from a single source which we consider indicatively correct, but the data is anecdotal and we cannot verify the data.
What does the data intend to show?
- The price trend we show is intended to represent the locally manufactured prices, or local FOB prices.
- It is possible that product is imported in from other countries at a lower, or higher, price than shown.
- For example:
- The USA price for TiO2 is US$3,000/MT
- The China price for TiO2 is US$2,100/MT
- If a USA company buys TiO2 from China, their CIF price may be US$2,350/MT
- Our reporting is intended to show the US$3,000/MT, and the the US$2,100/MT but not the US$2,350/MT
What data should our company use?
- If you are making decisions driving significant share of profit, we always recommend that you buy data from the companies who invest in direct market access such as ICIS, amongst many others
- Our data, at best, represents an estimate of the market trend based on public information
- We have no direct access to the market, and we do not interview suppliers and customers
- Our analysis tools in the online software are set up to combine our data with other sources of data
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- We assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this site.
- The information is provided on an “as is” basis with no guarantee of completeness, accuracy, usefulness, fitness for purpose or timeliness.
- By their nature, outlooks are always uncertain
How often do we update the data?
- We aim to update the data series on the 9th and 24th of each month (but we do not always make it for each chart)
- The data for the current month and recent history are fine-tuned over time.
What are we doing to improve the data?
- We are continually improving our data collection and processing methods
- Pricing data will be updated from time to time as we improve the accuracy
- We will improve our price trend algorithm before December 31, 2023.
- There will be continuous fine-tuning of the trend and forecast algorithm until end of December 2023.
- As part of that process, we will add many additional indexes in the final quarter of 2023
How can i give feedback on the data or request for new indexes
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